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Friday, October 5, 2012
User:
jsorrell
Date: 10/3/2012 12:04 pm
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Red Mile Race Reviews
Friday, October 5th
Track Handicapper – Gabe Prewitt
Race 1 Selections 3-4-1-5
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1
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Theatrical Session
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Trotted evenly against some
top colts in stakes action last week, and takes a huge plunge down to
overnight company here. Lands on the
pole, should be very close.
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2
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Sunset Magic
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Trotted evenly here in local
Q’fer, but she has encountered a ton of breaking problems recently and it’s
hard to depend on her to mind her manners.
I’ll pass for now.
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3
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Delmary
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Made a break on the small
track on Jugette Day, but had been doing fairly well here at The Red Mile
prior. Her main rivals in here are
2yo’s as well. I can make a case.
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4
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Lady Dynamite
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Has been facing the very
best filly trotters in North America
recently, and now finds herself in against overnight company. Has had some breaking issues, maybe a
conservative steer coming?
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5
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Laureen
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Added hobbles recently, and
strolled to an easy win in the local Q’fer last week. Should continue to improve, and does show a
win against mid-level stakes company when she stayed flat. Maybe.
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6
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I Know the Truth
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Doesn’t appear to pack the
speed to hang with the top ones in here just yet. Pass.
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7
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Blueridge Classic
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Flashed some improvement
last time, but would still need to pick things up quite a bit more. Pass.
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8
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Economic Change
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The economy went into a
recession down the stretch last time, and would need a complete turnaround
here.
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9
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Maxaman
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No luck last week, and
appears to have landed in another tough spot here from post 9. Pass.
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10
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Laffit
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Lightly raced 7yo lands in
against a tough group here and gets slammed with post 10 on top. Not today.
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Race 2 Selections 1-5-4-3
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1
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Nikki Beach
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($90k Lex yearling)
Unleashed a vicious late rally to surge by her stakes rivals for her 2nd
consecutive win last week. Hooks up
with a few tough ones, but no question she’s the one to beat. Tetrick opted here over #3.
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2
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Mistressto thestars
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($25k HB yearling) Showed
some improvement in her 2nd start with lasix last time, but still
appears to be a notch or two below the top ones in here. Pass.
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3
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Parlee Beach
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($80k Lex yearling)
Continues to hold her own against the best of the best, and her 50.4 win
earlier this year is easily the fastest in the field. Likely another off the pace rally coming
here. Must respect. Tetrick opted to #1.
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4
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Ritascape
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($12k HB yearling) Came
first over with authority last week en route to a gutsy victory in a new LT
best. Maybe a bit tougher group here,
but her best effort should put her very close once again.
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5
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Miss Madi M
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($9k Lex yearling) Got
caught on the front end last week which was a terrible place to be all night
long, still dug in well down the lane to hold 3rd. Continues to improve since adding
lasix. I can make a case.
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6
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Odds On Alpha
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Appeared to be one of the
best fillies around when she burst onto the scene earlier this summer on the
east coast, but we haven’t seen her in 2 months now. Added lasix since, she will need her very
best.
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7
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Antigua Hanover
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($70k Lex yearling) Saved
all the ground last week to pick up a 5th place check, and now
lands on the outside of what appears to be a solid group. Hard to endorse her against these.
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Race 3 Selections 7-5-2-4
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1
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Tornado
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($95k Lex yearling) No luck
against stakes company last week, and appears to have landed in against
another solid crew today. I’ll wait
until we see some improvement.
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2
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My Man Can
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($32k Lex yearling) I must
admit that he raced much better than I expected last time, as he has now hit
the board in 7 of 8 against the best of the best. One of many with a shot in a fairly wide
open crew.
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3
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Max Andover
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No match for the top colts
last week, and lands in against many of those same rivals here. Would have to find a lot more.
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4
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Possessed Fashion
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($55k HB yearling) Lost all
chance with an untimely break last week, but lands in against another crew
where it appears he fits well. Should
be blasting early if he minds his manners.
Maybe.
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5
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Show Ticket
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Trotted evenly down the lane
to finish up a close 4th in stakes action last week, just missing
the show ticket by a head. Not a bad
effort, but still going to have to pick things up a bit.
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6
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All Laid Out
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($32k Lex yearling) Trotter
is off to a magnificent start thus far in his brief career, with the
exception of a break 2 starts back.
Nailed #2 in the final strides here last week, anything similar puts
him close once again.
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7
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Your So Vain
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($60k HB yearling) Came from
an absolutely impossible spot last time at the head of the lane, and he was
absolutely flying the final 1/8 of a mile.
Should continue to improve in only 3rd LT start. BIG shot!
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8
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Caveat Emptor
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($60k Lex yearling) I
suppose you can give him an excuse for tiring late last time, as the front
end was bad all night on the off track.
He certainly fits with these, his best effort puts him in the
mix.
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Race 4 Selections 5-3-4-1
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1
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Want Answers
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Kept her perfect streak
alive of on the board finishes here last week, but she could not surge by her
rivals on the outside when put to the drive.
Should sit close from the pole once again. Maybe underneath. TT chose over #7.
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2
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Real Mozartist
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($17k Lex yearling) Saved
ground but was no match for the top fillies last week, and likely retains
longshot status here. Pass. Gingras opted to #6 instead.
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3
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I Luv the Nitelife
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($60k Lex yearling) Yet
another bargain buy from the LEX sales ring last year, this one for the Put
On A Show connections. Unleashed a big
late kick last week, no question the one to beat once again.
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4
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Authorize
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NJSS Champ never got worked
into the race last time, and ended up having to settle for 5th
despite trimming the margin to less than 2 lengths. Should sit much closer from mid-pack post
in short field. Maybe.
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5
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Mattie Terror Girl
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($150k Lex yearling –
highest WT filly sold in ’11) When I say she had nowhere to go down the lane
last time, I mean she was HOPELESSLY pinned in with pace. Don’t hold that start against her. Price better tonight.
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6
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Live Entertainment
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Outpaced down the lane last
time after being well spotted early by her pilot. Lands in another tough crew here. I’ll wait for a better spot. Gingras opted here over #2.
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7
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Aria J
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($75k HB yearling) NY
invader has been competitive against mid-level stakes company all season,
hitting the board in 9 of 10. Has her
work cut out after landing on the outside of a solid group here though. TT opted to #1.
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Race 5 Selections 8-2-1-3
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1
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Canary Island
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($42k HB yearling) Goes from
the far outside to the pole here today, and more importantly lands in what
appears to be the softest div on paper.
Should sit close, look to pounce late.
Maybe. Palone opted to #2
instead.
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2
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South Pacific
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($170k Lex yearling –
highest SBSW filly sold in ’11) Tired late on the front end last week, but
don’t hold that against her as her stablemate was the only one to win on the
front all night. Wide open group
here. Maybe.
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3
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Novascotia Hanover
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($21k HB yearling) Finished
up a close 4th last time, but quite honestly didn’t look the best
around the far turn as she was gapping cover while following the eventual
winner. Worth the risk at short
price? Not for me.
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4
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Ideal Ginny
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($35k HB yearling)
Disappointed twice locally against overnight company at short odds, and now
adds lasix for her local stakes debut.
It’s wide open, but if she couldn’t beat those….
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5
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Art Ideal
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($24k HB yearling) Should
continue to improve in only her 3rd LT start, but this is likely
still asking a bit much for her at this point. Not today.
Gingras opted here over #7…. Interesting…
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6
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Hit the Curb
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($80k Lex yearling) Unable
to fend off a couple of tough fillies late in the $225k NYSS Final last time
at Yonkers,
but still a solid effort. Another one
of many with a shot in wide open crew.
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7
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Carols Desire
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($25k Lex yearling – highest
RD filly sold in ’11) No match for her rivals last time, but did sprint by a
solid crew in the $118k Indy stake prior.
Which CD shows up here? Good
question. Gingras opted to #5
instead.
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8
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Wherethe girlsare
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Grinded by #2 with a
powerful first over move last time, only to be nailed in deep stretch by the
fav who came off her back. Lands on
the outside once again, but I was very impressed with that try. I’m on board.
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Race 6 Selections 3-8-1 Start of $10,000
Guaranteed Pick 4 See Ticket at the
end
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1
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Cashco
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($62k HB yearling) Never
really got clearance last time and appeared to have plenty of trot after
saving ground throughout. As my man
Dave Brower would say, had sneaky late trot.
Price should be right as well.
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2
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Recon
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($30k Lex yearling) A decent
effort in LC action last week, but stepping up to take on some top colts in
the major leagues here. Would still
have to pick things up quite a bit.
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3
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Fashion Blizzard
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The King of NY had an
eventful local debut, getting parked out for a while then facing immediate
pressure and being shuffled back before shaking loose late. Got all that? Me neither.
He has a ton of talent though.
Must use.
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4
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Crazed N Lindy
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($35k Lex yearling) Appears
to be a notch or two below the top ones in here at this point. I’ll wait until we see some improvement. Tetrick opted to #6 instead.
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5
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Dreams of Thunder
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Looks to have landed in a
tough crew for his local debut.
Appears a bit tough for him.
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6
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Punxsutawney
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($16k HB yearling) Couldn’t
have possibly diagramed a better trip last week, and took advantage of it
with a sizzling final panel to roar to an easy score. Appears to have really rounded the corner
in the last couple.
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7
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Broadway Prince
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($65k Lex yearling – highest
BH sold in ’11) Barn nearly pulled off their 2nd stakes upset of
the night with this guy, only to get nailed in deep stretch. Still a solid effort and a step in the
right direction.
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8
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Here’s Johnny
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($127k HB yearling) You can
forget about the start last week, as the front end was flat out terrible all
night. Starts prior certainly put him
in play, and he should continue to improve in only his 5th career
try. Maybe.
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Race 7 Selections 8-6-3-1
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1
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Howe’s Magic
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($17k HB yearling) First
time starter continues to get better and better with his AM works, but it
would be asking quite a bit for him to step up and beat these at first
asking. I’ll watch this one. Tetrick opted here over #3.
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2
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Odds on Windy City
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Drops into LC today after
not fairing all that well against stakes company here last week. Should be a much more manageable spot, but
still needs to find some more stamina to hang around for a piece late.
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3
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Southwind Metallic
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($10k Lex yearling) Actually
put in a very nice effort last week to finish up a close 2nd behind
the heavy fav. Typically always puts
in a nice try when he minds his manners.
Certainly fits with these. TT
opted to #1.
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4
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Shiner Hanover
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Not sure he is ready to go
with these just yet. Pass.
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5
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Larry P
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Unable to knock off his MI
fair rivals, hard to see him turning the tables against these.
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6
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Swiss Alps
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($8k Lex yearling) Decent
first over try in similar crew last week, before tiring late down the lane to
finish 3rd. Lands in what
appears to be a fairly comfortable spot today. Big shot.
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7
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Cowling Park
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Benefitted from several
breakers to end up a distant 3rd last time, but would still need
to pick it up a bit to contend for any of the major awards.
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8
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Kostas De Vie
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($29k Lex yearling) Charged up to challenge the eventual winner
with an aggressive first over move here last week, only to tire down the
lane. Maybe a bit softer spot here,
any smoother journey puts him in the mix.
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9
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Ugly Stik
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($2.2k Hoosier yearling) Had
an ugly start to his career, but appears to have turned things around since
adding hobbles in the AM two back at Indy.
Slammed with the outside, still has his work cut out in here.
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Race 8 Selections 5-4-2-1
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1
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Dewey Luvs Britt
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($6k Lex yearling) It’s
honestly hard to tell if he had a lot of trot before making the break down
the lane last time. Lands in another
solid crew here, he would need his very best regardless.
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2
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Raven Victory
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My longshot of the night
last week ended up winning but as the fav after taking a ton of late
play. I’m still high on his ability,
but we certainly won’t get any value now.
Looks to have a big shot once again.
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3
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Lejeune
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($10k HB yearling) Trotted
evenly behind a decent crew last time, but it doesn’t appear that things are
going to get much easier here. Still
needs to pick things up a bit to hang with the top ones. Campbell
opted to #7.
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4
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Voodoo Victor
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Unleashed a big rally down
the lane last time to blow by his tiring rivals en route to a 12-1
upset! No question he has the talent
when he keeps his mind on business.
Barn had a good week 1.
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5
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Lindy’s Tru Grit
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Debuts today after plenty of
practice in the morning, and appears to have really found his best stride
since arriving locally. I would expect
a fairly conservative steer in his debut, but should be flying late.
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6
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Risky Business
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($27k Lex yearling) Appears
to be a risky proposition considering all of the breaks. I’ll pass for now.
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7
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Exquisite Glide
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($32k Lex yearling) First
time starter finished well behind #5 in the Q’fer, and I’ll watch him go
around the track once before hopping on board. Campbell
opted here over #3.
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8
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Sir James
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Appeared like he was trying
to go into a pace after making the lead last week, and not quite sure what to
do with him now. Needs a big
rebound.
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Race 9 Selections 3-4-1-7
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1
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Real Ravishing
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Blew by one stablemate (#7)
first over last time, and fended off another (#3) down the lane to pull off
the 22-1 upset! No question a big
effort, but these fillies & mares typically take turns beating one another.
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2
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Lima Daydream
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Not much luck against
similar last week, would need a lot more here. Pass.
Tetrick opted to #7 instead.
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3
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If I Didn’t Care
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Absolutely flying down the
lane last time, but unable to collar #1 in deep stretch. If she gets worked into the race any
sooner, I think she is the one to beat.
Was bearing in a bit down the lane.
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4
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Cameron Lucky
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Spoiled the Alagna trifecta
after getting by #7 right at the wire last time. One of several with a big shot in
here.
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5
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Intelligence
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Fired an absolute blank here
last week, and would need a complete turnaround to contend for any of the
major awards in here. Hard to endorse
after seeing that. A. Miller opted to
#1 instead.
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6
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Through My Eyes
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Tired badly after saving
ground throughout here last week, another that would have to pick things up
substantially to contend in here.
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7
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Ryder Blue Chip
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Tired a bit down the lane
last time after an aggressive early move to the top. Still not a bad effort, anything similar
puts her in play once again. Tetrick
opted here over #2.
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8
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Caviart Cara
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Appears to have picked
things up a bit since adding lasix 2 back in Indy, but looks to have landed
in a bit over her head against these.
Pass.
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9
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Hammers Princess
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Even against similar here
last week, and now slammed with an outside post once again. Has her work cut out from way out
here. Your call.
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Race 10 Selections 5-8-4-2
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1
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Up Front N Crazy
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($30k HB yearling) Didn’t
have much luck in LC action last week, and now takes a step up to the major
leagues against stakes company. Not
sure I can endorse him against these.
Pierce opted to #4 instead.
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2
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Theraputic
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($40k Lex yearling) Has held
his own against some tough colts on the NYSS circuit, and should improve with
the stretch out to the big oval. Maybe
underneath. Tetrick opted to #7
instead.
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3
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Hobsons Choice
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($50k HB yearling) Didn’t
have much to offer against similar company last week, would need to pick
things up quite a bit to contend for any of the major awards in here. Mark Mac opted to #6 instead.
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4
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Text Winner
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Put together a nice rally
from a nearly impossible spot last time to finish up a close 4th. Should sit much closer after landing in a
perfect mid-pack post here. Really rounded the corner since arriving locally. RP chose over #1.
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5
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Pine Credit
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($19k Lex yearling) Finished
up a close 3rd behind a very solid crew here last week, and
continues to receive perfect piloting from LM. I can make a big case for him here.
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6
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Lauderdale
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($80k HB yearling) Showed a
ton of improvement last time with the addition of trotting hobbles, ending up
a game 2nd behind an undefeated colt. Should continue to improve here, but taking
a big step up. Your call.
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7
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Bizzaro Lindy
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($30k Lex yearling) Never in
it against solid crew last time, and likely to have to do it from last
today. Not sure I like how things set
up for him in here. Tetrick opted here
over #2.
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8
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Hall of Muscles
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Another that tired when on
the lead here last Friday, and we should be able to expect a much better
effort if he lands on the lead again here.
Should be very close against this crew.
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Race 11 Selections 5-4-8-1
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1
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Jacks To Open
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($55k HB yearling) No
question that he quit badly last time, but I won’t be too tough on him after
he was used very hard to make the top and was going against the bias. Should provide some value here from the
pole.
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2
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Crazy About Pat
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Picked up a solid 3rd
as a big price last week, but appears to have hooked a much tougher crew here
today. Not sure I am ready to hop on
board against these.
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3
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Creatine
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Things worked out perfectly
for him last week, as he was able to slide out late to surge past for his
first career stakes victory. Has great
tactical speed, any similar effort puts him in play once again. ML opted here over #1.
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4
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Major Athens
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Made it back to back wins
with a rally from far back last week to knock off the fav. Heads up drive from Sears to race him off
the pace the way the track was playing.
Maybe a more aggressive steer here.
Last loss was to #5.
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5
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Dontyou forgetit
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Won by a football field in
shattering the World Record on Jug Day in Delaware.
Has had some close battles with #4 thus far in their career. Hard to go against him after seeing that
last mile though, I didn’t forget it!
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6
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San Donato
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($50k HB yearling) Made an
untimely break to lose all chance here last week, but had been solid in his
local starts prior. Lands in an ultra
competitive field here though, needs his very best.
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7
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Bullish
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($42k HB yearling) Solid
effort last time to dig in for a close 5th place finish down the
lane but is another that has his work cut out after landing in quite the
shark tank here. We can’t use them
all.
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8
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Royalty For Life
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Has been great on the NYSS
circuit when he doesn’t break, and he should like the return to the big track
here. Lands in what may be our deepest
div though. Needs his very best
punch.
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9
|
Amalfi Coast
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No luck against similar last
week, and slammed with the outside post against a top tier group. Not a great recipe for success. Sears opted to #4 instead.
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Race 12 Selections 6-8-3-1-5 10
CENT SUPER HI FIVE WAGERING
|
1
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Classical Impact
|
I must admit that I was not
a big fan of his last time, and he nearly lasted on the lead up against the
track bias. Lands on the pole once
again, but appears to have hooked an even tougher group. Needs even more. DM to #8.
|
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2
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Zoli
|
Conservatively handled last
time after breaking in the start prior, and he appears to have landed in
another tough group here. Not sure he
is ready to go with the top ones in here just yet.
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3
|
March Awareness
|
Not quite sure what the sick
scratch was about, and he comes off a break in the start prior as well. This guy certainly proved he had some
ability here on 9-9 though! I’m willing
to hop on board once more.
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4
|
Body Balance
|
Back in tonight after
consecutive breaks. No thanks. I’ll watch this one.
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5
|
Muscle Mountain
|
($27k HB yearling) A nice
even effort after adding hobbles prior to the last start, and appears to have
a shot at the minor awards once again in here.
|
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6
|
Deadliest Catch
|
Very impressed with that
first over try against stakes company last week, and now lands in what should
be a much more manageable spot here in LC action. Must respect.
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7
|
Scottish Blue
|
($9k Lex yearling)
Eliminated with a break at the start last time, and has yet to show any major
speed thus far in his brief career.
I’ll wait until we see some improvement.
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8
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Detour Hanover
|
($825k HB yearling – highest
yearling sold in ’11) I’ve heard some chatter from folks not overly impressed
with his win last week, but keep in mind that was AGAINST the track
bias. He was the only front end winner
all night. It IS better than it looks
on paper, but Donato full brother hooks a tough rival in #6. Needs very best.
|
$10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4
Races 6 – 9
Race
6 – 1, 3, 6, 8
Race
7 – 1, 3, 6, 8
Race
8 – 2, 4, 5
Race
9 – 3
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LOCK OF THE NIGHT: RACE 11 #5 DONTYOUFORGETIT (2-1 ML)
LONGSHOT OF THE NIGHT: RACE 3 #7 YOUR SO VAIN (8-1 ML)
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